Saturday, April 12, 2008

We're changing our position, but we're still right

Kerry Emmanuel is a scientist. He's not just any scientist; he's an MIT scientist. He does the math that shows the world is going to cook and we're all going to die from global warmening.

Kerry Emmanuel is one of the jokers who predicted in 2005 (after Katrina) that 2006 would be even more dreadful. Then, after 2006 was considerably less dreadful than 2005, Emmanuel predicted that 2007 would be the ultimate dreadful hurricane season.

Now that 2007 has shown itself to have been similarly undramatic, it's time for the expert to explain himself.

So Kerry Emmanuel has changed his tune, now saying that even though global warmening is actually happening and we're all going to die, nevertheless hurricanes aren't going to get stronger and more numerous for a while.

He has invented a 'novel' formula to predict this, and he espouses it with great confidence; it is the same great confidence with which he espoused the previous failed formulas.

Rather than reconsider the larger picture, he set about creating a formula that would still prove his previous preexisting conclusion while taking into account the data which argues for the opposite conclusion.

Only a scientist could manage this, but don't worry-- K.E. is one of the best. Heh heh.

Remember, the most recent actual global temperature measurements tell us we haven't seen actual warming since 2004, and that the recent ten year period is either flat or cooling in trend, with the warmest weather in 1998. This ten year non-warming trend has actually leveled the charts for the previous 100 years, putting us at current temperatures which do NOT support the whole global warmening thing.

Coincidentally, the sun has been dead quiet in terms of sunspots since 2005, and the latest cycle of sunspots is now two years late and counting. Sunspots are the cause of increased solar radiation striking earth, and when sunspots are at a minimum, the weather historically has been cold.

But rather than incorporate THIS data and reach different conclusions, these 'scientists' approach their work with conclusions already formed and then create the math to explain their preexisting conclusions.

This does not fill ME with confidence about their work.

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